Many‐server loss models with non‐poisson time‐varying arrivals

This article proposes an approximation for the blocking probability in a many‐server loss model with a non‐Poisson time‐varying arrival process and flexible staffing (number of servers) and shows that it can be used to set staffing levels to stabilize the time‐varying blocking probability at a target level. Because the blocking probabilities necessarily change dramatically after each staffing change, we randomize the time of each staffing change about the planned time. We apply simulation to show that (i) the blocking probabilities cannot be stabilized without some form of randomization, (ii) the new staffing algorithm with randomiation can stabilize blocking probabilities at target levels and (iii) the required staffing can be quite different when the Poisson assumption is dropped. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 177–202, 2017     

基于来袭鱼雷方位变化率的制导类型识别技术

对来袭鱼雷的制导类型进行识别是水面舰艇实施有针对性鱼雷防御的前提条件,方位变化率则可作为类型识别的一个重要的识别依据。首先,从不同类型潜射鱼雷的发射方式和弹道特征入手,分别推导出潜射直航鱼雷、声自导鱼雷、尾流自导鱼雷方位变化率的表达式。其次,仿真分析了不同类型潜射鱼雷方位变化率的影响因素。最后,在给定的态势下,给出了四种不同类型潜射鱼雷方位变化率随雷舰距离的变化规律曲线。仿真结果能为鱼雷制导类型识别提供一定的参考依据。     

基于 EEMD 的滚动轴承故障诊断方法

针对经验模态分解（empirical mode decomposition,EMD）方法处理轴承振动信号时存在的缺点,指出极值点的选择是产生模态混叠现象的原因。分析了集成经验模态分解（ensemble empirical mode decomposi-tion,EEMD）方法抑制模态混叠现象的原理,讨论了加入高斯白噪声的次数和大小对 EEMD 方法分解结果的影响,并通过仿真和实测信号对 EMD 和 EEMD 方法的性能进行了比较测试。结果表明：EEMD 方法不仅能够有效地抑制模态混叠现象,而且能更好地反映出轴承振动信号中的故障信息。同时,对通过 EEMD 方法得到的重构信号进行平方包络分析,结果证明：该方法能够有效地提取出滚动轴承的故障特征。     

Elements of ‘armed non-state actors’ power: The case of al-Qaeda in Yemen

Over the past few years there is an apparent re-regionalization of al-Qaeda activity, intensified by the ongoing Middle East turmoil. Its main characteristic is a trend towards the abandonment of focoist strategies and their replacement by more popular-based ones. This article aims at evaluating their capacity to implement such a strategy shift and sustain the required level of violence. As a means of evaluating this capacity, this article proposes the use of a DIME (diplomatic, informational, military, and economic) framework, which will hopefully provide an alternative angle of theorizing and understanding ‘armed non-state actors’ (ANSAs). The model is applied in the case of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which appears to have effectively developed the military and informational dimensions, due partly to its own prowess and partly to the Yemeni state's weaknesses and the shortcomings of counterinsurgency. In contrast, the economic and diplomatic dimensions suffer from the lack of resources and the anti-systemic nature of AQAP.     

马尔科夫对称离散信道级联信道容量研究

基于有限维的级联马尔科夫对称信道矩阵,其转移概率的极限一定存在,推导出当n足够大时,输出符号的概率分布不依赖于输入的概率分布,使得信道容量为零,信道阻塞。n为信道级联的上限。针对主对角元素概率值不同将信道矩阵划分为惰性信道和灵敏信道,并通过仿真分析得出信道的级联上限n与矩阵维数无关,与信道矩阵主对角元素呈正相关。     

潜艇不机动纯方位解算编队目标运动要素方法

针对单艘潜艇纯方位目标定位必须潜艇机动才能使算法收敛的问题,首次采用几何分析法研究了潜艇不机动情况下,解算编队目标运动要素的方法;然后,基于最小二乘法,给出了具体的解算模型,并给定态势,进行实例仿真。证明该算法能够满足潜艇隐蔽对编队目标定位的需要,进一步丰富了潜艇纯方位目标定位方法。     

Should competing firms reveal their capacity?

In this article, we explore when firms have an incentive to hide (or reveal) their capacity information. We consider two firms that aim to maximize profits over time and face limited capacity. One or both of the firms have private information on their own capacity levels, and they update their beliefs about their rival's capacity based on their observation of the other firm's output. We focus on credible revelation mechanisms—a firm may signal its capacity through overproduction, compared to its myopic production levels. We characterize conditions when high‐capacity firms may have the incentive and capability to signal their capacity levels by overproduction. We show that prior beliefs about capacity play a crucial, and surprisingly complex, role on whether the firm would prefer to reveal its capacity or not. A surprising result is that, despite the fact that it may be best for the high‐capacity firm to overproduce to reveal its capacity when capacity information is private, it may end up with more profits than if all capacity information were public knowledge in the first place. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于证据理论的军械装备修理能力认证评估方法

借鉴AHP法建立军械装备修理能力认证评估体系,并构建其递阶层次模型。确立体系各级指标权重中,引入D-S证据理论对多专家意见进行融合;综合考虑专家的权重和不确定度,并采用单值转换分布概率算法对专家评价分数进行换算,改进了AHP法受专家经验、知识限制,主观性强等缺点。经算例分析,该方法能准确可靠地评价型号装备修理机构的修理能力,减少专家主观因素对评估结果的影响。     

参数法确定舰船增压锅炉的蒸发量

对于新制造或中修后的蒸汽动力装置的锅炉来说,研究其热平衡、确定其热效率以及检验增压锅炉出力,都必须知道锅炉的蒸发量.针对传统方法确定锅炉蒸发量的不足,运用流体力学基本原理,用参数法推出确定舰船增压锅炉蒸发量的计算公式.只需要在稳定工况下通过记录蒸汽参数(pk和pgr、tgr及B),并在计算机上编程计算即可得到蒸发量Dk.     

公安消防机构推行说理执法探索

探索推行说理执法是公安机关消防机构创新社会管理,不断改进和加强消防监督执法工作,提高理性、平和、文明、规范执法能力的重要举措。从说理执法的内涵及推行说理执法的重大意义,说理执法应当把握的指导思想、基本原则、任务和要求等方面,对推行说理执法作了初步探讨。